Shipping and offshore services
Norrvik Marine
A fleet operator tied its vessel-charter calendar to a forecast it can stress in one click.
Group
12 entities · 7 banks · 4 currencies
Country
Sweden
Backtest
Inside range · error 4.3 %
The setup
Norrvik Marine operates a fleet of twenty-two vessels under long and short charters, with offices in Gothenburg, Bergen, Rotterdam and Singapore. Revenue arrives in dollars, euros and Norwegian kroner; costs arrive in all of those plus Swedish kronor. Twelve entities and seven banks stand between a charter signed in June and cash received in September.
Ingrid Solheim’s difficulty was that her income was both large and uncertain. A charter extension could add kr 14.3M to a quarter; a delayed drydock could remove the same amount. Her old model had one scenario, and every question from the board (“what if rates fall a tenth?”) meant half a day of rework.
Backtest · forecast vs actual · 13 weeks
kr 14.3M
Of charter income brought forward into the forecast calendar
3 of 4
Currencies hedged against the low point, up from one
$1,273,905
Largest single payment held for a second signature in the first year
“
Freight rates move the whole forecast, so I need to see the bad case next to the base case. One toggle, and the cone redraws. That is the feature I show the board.
Ingrid Solheim
Head of Treasury
What changed
With Headroom, each charter becomes a line in the forecast with its own probability and payment terms, and the scenario switch changes the assumptions behind the whole cone. The treasurer shows three cases in the same view: base, upside and stress. The stress case in November put the low point below the group’s internal floor by $1.9M, early enough to arrange a revolving credit drawdown without paying for urgency.
Approvals followed. Any payment above $250,000 now needs a second signature, and the largest one held in the first year was $1,273,905, a supplier payment whose invoice turned out to have a changed bank account. Ingrid says the cone gets the attention, but the two-signature rule is what the auditors asked to see.
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